Recently, I came across an interesting article discussing how Indians are more American in some sense than American themselves. Although the article focused on perceptual transformation of ideas – Chinese Whisper for perceptions and ideas in other words – I found myself going down an interesting rabbit hole of economies and civilisations before emerging without caring who won the US elections.
But it turns out it is important and stuff. Here, in this space, we shall explore some of the impacts of JoeBama replacing our orange meme generator in a much less pretentious manner. Let’s first start by exploring why orange was such an iconic choice to begin with.
What was Donald Trump Like? For someone who seized Indo-American voters with slogans such as ‘Abki Baar Trump Sarkar,’ Mr. Donald Trump wasn’t exactly great for anyone – with 9GaG and Instagram possibly being notable exceptions.
But that is particularly true of India. Let’s begin where most issues begin – money. For two decades now, all White House presidents have unanimously agreed that strengthened Indo-US trade ties are mutually beneficial and likely to serve both countries well under this new global economy.
However, things quickly changed under a leadership of an incessant man-child with one ideology in mind – America First! Trump achieved in his four year term to increase tariffs for virtually all commodities exported worth $17.3 Billion net exports (to date). This undoubtedly acts as a disincentive to trade deals between parties involved. Coupled with net exports declining from $24.3 Billion to $23.3 Billion between 2016 and 2019, this trend does not bode well. Predictably, India was enjoying preferential treatment during his term, from differentiating India from other South-Asian economies to trade licenses and deals. Not only was this taken away, but India Inc was forced into purchasing oil at higher costs from US rather than Iran or Venezuela – not ideal.
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But all this activity is just for show. Now let’s talk dormancy: one of the cornerstones of American principles is democratic capitalism as an opposition to communism; during Trump’s term in particular, many human rights issues occurred such as an internet ban in Kashmir or pulling CAA without receiving solid condemnations from US. This serves as an indicator that it could come back more heavily during Biden presidency than you realise; hopefully. Let’s examine what changes there might be concerning money and other such matters.
Joe Biden Presidency: Trade, Money and Stuff
One of the main criticisms of Donald Trump presidency has been his restriction of immigration into US. With wall against Mexicans, increased tariffs and decreased H1B visas there was an attempt at creating an autonomous closed economy that simply cannot function anymore given globalisation and cheap overseas productions.
Mr. Joe Biden has long championed strong economic ties between India and China; indeed he helped to draft bills establishing the current civil nuclear deal post Bush presidency.
What this means: it appears likely that escalated relations between US and Middle Eastern will relax or calm down, giving India the chance to resume trade relations for items like oil and rice with these countries – essential since India still had a budget deficit of 3.5% this year despite its planned massive LIC IPO; companies buy barrels instead which is then tracked through profits, GDP, taxes and Treasury revenue; thus increasing trade with these nations for essential commodities like these.
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Biden may restore Generalised System of Preferences, which was cancelled out by Trump. Under GSP, businesses in India enjoy export and import duty benefits.
India, on the other hand, appears to reciprocate these deals in several ways: cutting tariff duties for auto-mobile exporters such as Harley Davidson while opening up wider access for India’s agricultural commodities like cherries. Furthermore, certain medical equipment tariffs like stents and implants were reduced, making India attractive to international pharmaceutical companies like Abbott; furthermore there have been talks of American goods like walnuts and apples also being subjected to reduced tariffs in exchange.
Biden plans on liberalising immigration policies, which could be seen as a boon for India’s IT sector – H1B visa applicants being at the core – as well as supporting family immigration. Simply increasing visa availability while reforming skill and employment based visas would also be welcome measures.
Joe Biden Presidency: Politics & Human Rights
Joe Biden’s election marks an historic event; Kamala Harris became the first woman of color ever elected Vice-President. Biden-Harris policies pledged and projected focus heavily on climate change mitigation and human rights protections – this bodes well, since Donald Trump often turns away from such issues; on the contrary, Harris seems more inclined towards championing them given her track record with such issues in India.
One of the central issues would be US-China relations. China has come under heavy fire globally due to its ineffective communist policies. Trump may try and convince himself that Biden would be soft on China but this no longer appears likely; when Biden responds it would be hypocritical of him to accuse China of anti-democratic behaviour while dismissing similar behavior seen with CAA and Kashmir by India, but criticizing it simultaneously as something less than what Saudi Arabia offers in terms of oil production and so forth.
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Obama-Biden presidents have recognized India as an integral defense ally, with Vice-President Joe Biden once going as far as to predict that their relationship would fully blossom by 2020 (in 2006. It seems likely that they will maintain this trend during his administration.
As part of Obama administration, India and USA also entered into a Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Association (LEMOA). This memorandum formalizes their alliance and covers many issues – such as providing US troops access to Indian military bases to replenish supplies and equipment which would later be reimbursed later.
Impact of United States Elections & Their Results on India With so much at stake when it comes to these elections and their effects on Indian economy, we may sometimes need to consider the behavioral traits of candidates during an election – an essential process in any democracy, I believe. While Donald Trump’s campaign often featured sudden outbursts of emotion on controversial subjects that quickly faded out, Joe Biden kept things calmer, tailoring his campaign so as to allow Donald Trump’s controversial antics fade out naturally as part of his strategy allowing him time and giving him room to get rid of him himself as much as possible before giving him his chance.
Trump had all but ensured a decisive win before COVID struck, providing the US Treasury with a substantial surplus. Biden proved more capable at dealing with short-term non-sustainable policies enacted by Trump than doing it himself, emerging victorious at last.
Let us now wait and observe to determine its effects on both the US economy and other countries worldwide.
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